Integrating Multi-hazard Risk Assessment and Climate Change Projections for Adaptive Water Resource Management: A Case Study of the Ajichai River Basin

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Maragheh, Maragheh, Iran.

Abstract

This research develops an in-depth hydrologic risk analysis for the Ajichai River catchment by using the flow series at the Veniar station for the period from 1966 to 2013. A complete methodology was used to analyze the flood and drought risks, as well as the long-term trends and eventual impact of climate change on the flow regime of the river. Annual maximum flow data were fitted using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution and provided a 100-year flood estimate of 224.9 m3/s, 95% CI: 177.7-272.1 m3/s. A significant decreasing trend in annual mean flow was detected: Sen's slope -0.25 m3/s/year, p < 0.01. The low-flow frequency analysis yielded a high value of the coefficient of correlation r = 0.98, which explained the duration and severity relationship of droughts described by the power-law equation S = 0.0012 × D1.85. It is evident from the seasonal analysis that during the spring season, 68.7% of the annual maximum flow occurs with an average peak flow of 89.6 m3/s. There was a very important shift in the timing of the floods, a 26-day earlier date of annual maximum flows between the 1970s and the 2010s. It quantified the relationship between annual maximum flow and precipitation: Q = 0.0015×P2.1, R2 = 0.88, underlining the probable impact of the changes in precipitation on flood risk. In fact, it exposes the complex and dynamic hydrological environment of the Ajichai River basin and signifies a requirement for adaptable water management that concurrently contributes to decreasing flood and drought risks in response to climate change.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

[1] M.C. Acreman, M.J. Dunbar, Defining environmental river flow requirements–a review, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(5) (2004) 861-876.
[2] J. CHABOKPOUR, B. SHOJAEI, H. AZAMATHULLA, NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION OF RIVER BED FORMS ON POLLUTION DISPERSION, LARHYSS Journal P-ISSN 1112-3680/E-ISSN 2521-9782, (59) (2024) 211-228.
[3] J. Chabokpour, Comparative Analysis of Transfer Function Method with Advanced Flood Prediction Techniques, Water Harvesting Research,  (2024).
[4] J. Chabokpour, M. Raji, Predicting Morphological Changes in Rivers Using Image Processing (Case Study: Qizil Ouzan River), Journal of Hydraulic Structures, 10(2) (2024).
[5] V. Meyer, D. Haase, S. Scheuer, Flood risk assessment in European river basins—concept, methods, and challenges exemplified at the Mulde river, Integrated environmental assessment and management, 5(1) (2009) 17-26.
[6] H. Winsemius, L. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. Ward, A. Bouwman, A framework for global river flood risk assessments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(5) (2013) 1871-1892.
[7] Y. Chen, D. Alexander, Integrated flood risk assessment of river basins: application in the Dadu river basin, China, Journal of Hydrology, 613 (2022) 128456.
[8] M. Gusyev, A. Gädeke, J. Cullmann, J. Magome, A. Sugiura, H. Sawano, K. Takeuchi, Connecting global‐and local‐scale flood risk assessment: a case study of the Rhine River basin flood hazard, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 9(4) (2016) 343-354.
[9] R.M. Vogel, U. Lall, X. Cai, B. Rajagopalan, P.K. Weiskel, R.P. Hooper, N.C. Matalas, Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water, Water Resources Research, 51(6) (2015) 4409-4430.
[10] I.P. Vaughan, M. Diamond, A. Gurnell, K. Hall, A. Jenkins, N. Milner, L. Naylor, D. Sear, G. Woodward, S.J. Ormerod, Integrating ecology with hydromorphology: a priority for river science and management, Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 19(1) (2009) 113-125.
[11] D.L. Tennant, Instream flow regimens for fish, wildlife, recreation and related environmental resources, Fisheries, 1(4) (1976) 6-10.
[12] J.D. Olden, M.J. Kennard, B.J. Pusey, A framework for hydrologic classification with a review of methodologies and applications in ecohydrology, Ecohydrology, 5(4) (2012) 503-518.
[13] K.L. Aspray, J. Holden, M.E. Ledger, C.P. Mainstone, L.E. Brown, Organic sediment pulses impact rivers across multiple levels of ecological organization, Ecohydrology, 10(6) (2017) e1855.
[14] T. Annear, I. Chisholm, H. Beecher, A. Locke, P. Aarrestad, C. Coomer, C. Estes, J. Hunt, R. Jacobson, G. Jobsis, Instream Flows for Riverine Resource Stewardship (revised edition): Instream Flow Council, Cheyenne, Wyoming,  (2004).
[15] S. Sahoo, D. Khare, P.K. Mishra, S. Behera, R. Krishan, A comparative study on environmental flows assessment methods in lower reach of Mahanadi River, International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology, 32(2) (2016) 82-90.
[16] A. Fu, W. Li, Y. Wang, Calculation of targeted eco-environmental water requirements in a dry inland river: A case study of the Yarkand River Basin, Xinjiang, China, SN Applied Sciences, 3(6) (2021) 680.
[17] V.U. Smakhtin, N. Eriyagama, Developing a software package for global desktop assessment of environmental flows, Environmental Modelling & Software, 23(12) (2008) 1396-1406.
[18] X. Yin, P. Hu, J. Zhou, Environmental flow mechanism and management for river–lake‐marsh systems, Hydrological Processes, 36(6) (2022) e14629.
[19] C. Mc Gahey, P. Samuels, D. Knight, M. O'Hare, Estimating river flow capacity in practice, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 1(1) (2008) 23-33.
[20] G. Gottardi, C.G. Gragnano, On the role of partially saturated soil strength in the stability analysis of a river embankment under steady-state and transient seepage conditions, in:  E3S Web of Conferences, EDP Sciences, 2016, pp. 19002.
[21] X. Wang, X. Yan, H. Duan, X. Liu, E. Huang, Experimental study on the influence of river flow confluences on the open channel stage–discharge relationship, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(16) (2019) 2025-2039.
[22] J. Neal, C. Keef, P. Bates, K. Beven, D. Leedal, Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence, in, Wiley Online Library, 2013, pp. 1349-1363.
[23] H. Fattasse, J. Gartet, M. Laaraj, M. Makhchane, K. Lahrichi, A. Okacha, Hydrological Study and Hydraulic Modeling of Flood Risk in the Watershed of the Oued Lahdar (Upper Inaouene, Morocco), Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology (EEET), 25(7) (2024).
[24] F. Hamid, G. Jaouad, L. Marouane, M. Mohamed, L. Kamal, O. Abdelmonaim, Hydrological Study and Hydraulic Modeling of Flood Risk in the Watershed of the Oued Lahdar (Upper Inaouene, Morocco), Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology, 25(7) (2024).
[25] C. Jiang, Y. Kang, K. Qu, Y. Long, Y. Ma, S. Yan, Towards a high-resolution modelling scheme for local-scale urban flood risk assessment based on digital aerial photogrammetry, Engineering Applications of Computational Fluid Mechanics, 17(1) (2023) 2240392.
[26] O. Link, L.M. Brox‐Escudero, J. González, M. Aguayo, F. Torrejón, G. Montalva, M.Á. Eguibar‐Galán, A paleo‐hydro‐geomorphological perspective on urban flood risk assessment, Hydrological Processes, 33(25) (2019) 3169-3183.
[27] X. Liu, L. Li, Z. Hua, Q. Tu, T. Yang, Y. Zhang, Flow dynamics and contaminant transport in Y-shaped river channel confluences, International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(4) (2019) 572.
[28] Y. Liu, J. Zhang, Y. Zhao, The risk assessment of river water pollution based on a modified non-linear model, Water, 10(4) (2018) 362.
[29] G.C. O'Brien, C. Dickens, E. Hines, V. Wepener, R. Stassen, L. Quayle, K. Fouchy, J. MacKenzie, P.M. Graham, W.G. Landis, A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(2) (2018) 957-975.
[30] S.A. Longfield, D. Faulkner, T.R. Kjeldsen, M.G. Macklin, A.F. Jones, S.A. Foulds, P.A. Brewer, H.M. Griffiths, Incorporating sedimentological data in UK flood frequency estimation, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12(1) (2019) e12449.
[31] C. Keef, J. Tawn, C. Svensson, Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 58(5) (2009) 601-618.
[32] J. Salvadori, C. De Michele, N.T. Kottegoda, R. Rosso, Extremes in Nature: An Approach Using Copulas . Springer Science & Business Media, (2007).
[33] H. Joe, Dependence Modeling with Copulas . CRC Press, (2014).
AUT Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 9, Issue 1
2025
Pages 3-18

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics